In this article I will be looking at possible Elliott Wave counts for the S&P 500 (Index of American Stock Markets) on the 4 Hour chart.
Looking at the current progression, in specific the down move that started from 29th January 2018 onwards (our Point of Reference marked in Yellow), from there we can see clear 3 legs down so far with the Hypo 1 suggesting that we are currently in Wave C/3 and more precisely in Wave .iii of Wave iii of Wave C/3.
1. In case this is Wave C :
- We first look for 61.8% of Wave A for the completion of this Wave C, which it has already achieved and is actually sitting at right now 2594.
- The more important level is equality between Wave A and Wave C, which is coming around 2452.
- Given that the last bar on the 4 Hour chart gave a close near the low and the entire structure after Wave B/2 looks very Impulsive I expect to see this market move a bit lower and see level of 2452 or even lower.
- If for whatever reason the Wave C is about the complete at the 61.8% level (which it is already sitting on) then we should see a strong reversal on Monday, however I do not think that would be the case.
2. In case this is Wave 3 (Low Probability) :
- The entire picture changes if this is the case, as that would mean a higher time frame trend has ended and we have much more downside to see, even the 161.8 level in this case will come around 2240.
- I will only be considering this more bearish picture if we see a move till the 2240 lows.
Whichever of the 2 discussed counts is playing out in SPX, it looks like a bit lower move till the equality level of 2452 is quite probable and once the market reaches that level we will see how it reacts from there to see further possibility.
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