21. Applied Elliott Wave Webinar (Crude, Gold, SPX, Nifty 50, Amazon, Aurobindo Pharma, Bank Nifty) Oct. – Nov. 2020

In this webinar I have discussed practical application of Elliott Wave using various chart including Crude, Gold, SPX, Nifty 50, Amazon (NASDAQ Stock), Aurobindo Pharma (NSE Stock), Bank Nifty.

Possible trading strategies using Elliott Wave for October and November 2020 have also been discussed wherever applicable.

Timestamps :

• • 00:58 – Regarding Training Program LT
  • 02:14 – Crude Oil
  • 07:24 – Gold
  • 17:20 – SPX
  • 23:38 – Nifty 50
  • 29:55 – Amazon (NASDAQ Stock)
  • 34:40 – Aurobindo Pharma (NSE Stock)
  • 38:15 – Bank Nifty

So let’s start off with the disclaimer on screen suggesting that all content presented here is for educational purposes and not soliciting any buy or sell. If you do go on to use the views presented here, you yourself will be liable for your profits, losses, or loss of profits. And moving ahead, like to give a small introduction, my name is Neerav and I’ve been doing this monthly applied Elliott Wave webinars. And this will be 21st in the series of these applied Elliott Wave webinars that I do. So you can check more of my work by visiting my website www.50eyes.com and you can check the webinars, they are always posted below here, or you can just check them in the market analysis section. Apart from this work, I also do run classes and I also have like personal classes, I also have a passive video course which you can check out by going over here. And for any inquiry regarding classes, you can make the inquiry using the training program LT form which is at this link. This will be posted in the description of the video after this video is this webinar is uploaded to YouTube later on. We will talk more about the course and coming batch, maybe near the end. And for now let’s get started with the webinar. Before we start with the discussions, let’s have a quick look at the last webinar that we did. Because we will first be comparing what we discuss in the last one and we will then check back with the current scenario in the market. Hello, Rajiv, I see you have joined in Alex, as well. So give me a final note if my voice is clear, and then we can start. Okay, thank you. Thank you, Alex. So let’s start off with the crude oil. And from what I recall, in the last discussion, we were a bit unclear. And I was saying that it would be better if we wait for a bigger pullback, and then the rise up. But anyways, let’s just look at the video quickly on 3:10. We have discussed crude oil. And on another note, always turn the video quality to 1080p, those of you who would be checking this later on, because it does not look good on any other setting because the dark background. So that’s the analysis last time. And yeah, so that’s the main view, my view was that either it will give a bigger pullback to 38.2 and then rise up or it is possible that it can go straight up, but I will not be interested in going long. That was the clear view here. And the strategy was to wait for a possible sell off to what is 31.2 something levels. If there is a sell off till those levels, then we will be interested in analyzing this market for Long’s. And he was coming back to the actual data, we have been sort of sideways in the range of 4130 to about 36 from then on. And we still have not went lower to achieve that 3120 level either. So I believe that we may be having a correction continuing over here. So just to emphasize on the current scenario, I think this leg down, if we take that as the first leg down, then we have this sideways correction continuing, which I believe is A up and then ABC for B down and then C up. So basically a flat correction, which should then later on be followed by one more leg down. So once this progression is complete, then we can possibly expect to take some long positions on the next leg up. And also keep in mind this does not look like a very clear case of correction. This is way too much overlap. So it is also possible that this might turn into some more complex formation rather than the simple flat that I just suggested. But in any case, the idea is to wait for a break lower than this level of 36 possibly to the 38.2 levels of 3128 or the 3120 or what was that? Yeah 3120 level. And if we do see the market near those levels, then or basically we see the market below this level of 36, we will then start to analyze it for possible longs. So still no clear trade opportunity here, but still awaiting both. There is one other possibility, this is your A up and this is a triangle instead of a flat then you can have that up leg before the fall. That is definitely possible. But the whole thing is that it will still be not that terrible from a swing perspective. Yeah, but this count can come in handy if we see a breakout above the last time 42 ish, or recent high of 42. It’s just that there are multiple possibilities that can happen when the market is in a complex correction as it is as of now. So that’s why I just don’t want to dwell deep into it, because there will be another scenarios coming out if we start doing that. And then the discussion becomes inconclusive. For instance, right now, I just discussed that there will be a scenario like this down and then up and then down. And the second scenario is sideways, and then straight up and then down. So basically, both scenarios are pointing in different directions. So that’s my whole point. It is a bit unconducive. Just like the last time we discussed. Obviously, we need to keep following it on a shorter time frame, keeping the higher and downside levels in mind. But it’s not really the market for that just say a clear trade right now. If there is any doubt, do put them in or just type type in clear. sajou I believe I’ve already clarify what you were saying. Let’s move on to gold. So the last time we discussed gold, it was checked somewhere over here. Yeah, so the view was that either the wave 4 is complete the circle wave 4 and it will Head up for upside. And for that there was a trigger near these highs. Let me see if I have the, if I can get to the exact point where that it discussed in the last webinar. Yeah, so I believe this must have been the trigger high for possible Long’s. And there was another level that we marked it. I believe it was this lower level, either this one or that one. So the point was, unless this trigger high is breached, there is no long and once it’s breached there will be Long’s and from what I recall, this was never breached. Instead, the market went lower for the second hypothesis, which I believe was discovered after this one. Yeah, so second hypothesis was that the wave 4 is check where it is discussed. Yep, there it is. So the second hypothesis was this three is here and four is complete already. And but it’s complete not here, but over here. And if it’s complete over here, then this five is already complete, that is a possibility and in that case, we can see a bigger ABC pullback. Now, for that we had these targets of this level and the lower level of about 1720.3. Let’s check that on the actual chart now. So as we can see, the upside target was never triggered. So we relegated any possibility of bullishness. Second was overview that wave 4 is complete over here, then we will see more upside. Okay, so this is another chart I’m working with. Just give me one second and let me figure out the actual chart. So kindly get my hands on the one, which we use and last one actually have a lot of gold charts open right now. So I’ll just continue with the counts that I have on screen because I know what the analysis. So from here on, taken this as the leg down as the a wave, and it could be a wave one, but we’ll just go with the corrective continuation, keeping the bullish bias in mind. Secondly, this price moment is still sideways. So I’m considering the possibility that this might be a triangle over here, like this. And if that’s the case, then we will have an A here and a B here, which will then be followed by next leg down for C. Once this wave B is complete, which we are expecting as a triangle, then we can just measure the length of wave a and project it from the end of that to get our possible targets for wave C. And moving on with this progression, we can say that this is over a of the triangle, this is of the B of the triangle and that is for those guys who might not be very much aware with Elliot wave, I would just like to point out a triangle has five waves inside of it. If we roughly draw them, then it would look like this. They are mentioned as A, B, C, D, and E. So C and then your D and then an E. So that’s your rough outlook for a triangle. So in this case, we have the A over here, B over here, and C which is supposed to go up is looking like it’s possibly continuing. Now if it’s continuing, then most likely This is the first leg up correction and this will be the next leg up for the C of the triangle then there will be a D and an E. So basically, we are still expecting corrective movement in this market. Basically sideways movement is the proper word here. Because it will remain range bound within this box. So Anywho, if this is the pattern here, then the triangle will look something like this, once this wave a is complete, which will have two waves remaining before it’s in the formation, then we can look for some shorting in this market. That is only if this count is being followed. So that’s for our quick look over there. And I believe I have also done the short term analysis. So let’s check by zooming into the last price. So this I have taken this leg up as a possible leading diagonal over here. Followed by wave B, which looks like a, b, c, d. So this I’m not really convinced with this triangle. So I’ll just remove it. This could be a flat formation, which is still continuing. So I believe this may have a leg down but not necessarily basically, we are just waiting for possible Long’s on this market. So I’ll just put a trigger here. Once it is clear about 1925 then I can reevaluate the count of this structure and think about going long. So that’s it for gold sideways, because we are expecting a triangle. And once that is complete, possible sell off. I believe it is rather clear. But if you guys have any doubts, do post them in the comment section. And I’ll make sure to get back that’s our main hypo by the way. Second hypothesis would first can you clarify guys that if you’re clear on this one, before we move on to the next possibility Okay. <span data-mce-type=”bookmark” style=”display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;” class=”mce_SELRES_start”></span>So, the second possibility will be that this thing is already complete and this was the wave A this is the B complete at a triangle C down is also complete and this is starting a new move up and this leading diagonal is a wave 1 and this correction as flat or whatever will be our 2 and then there will be a wave 3. So but that doesn’t really matter at this point because in either case, we are looking for this up leg from shorter timeframe at least because even that triangle count this was over wave c right. So, hypo 1 and hypo 2 are suggesting that for short term at least we have upside remaining overall swing perspectively we have sideways movement as per hypo 1 short term up as per hypo 2 overall we have bullishness swing perspective and short term also up. So, basically, I’ll we looking for possible Long’s on gold given the fact that both hypo 1 and hypo 2 are pointing in that direction. So, I guess we are clear on this, right. The second one is a rather easy outlook. So, just type in clear quickly so we can forward to looking at s&p followed by nifty. What about other guys? You catching my pace? Too fast? Too slow? It’s okay. Let me know any feedback? Okay, Rajiv. So let’s check the chart of s&p over here. And let’s first quickly look at what was discussed last time in s&p around 22. From what I recall, it was a corrective movement up is what we were checking. What’s taking so long to load. Am I still connected here? Can you guys confirm? This video is not loading up. Okay, thanks. Let’s just Yep, it’s working now. That’s the count over here, we were expecting that it is either a W X Y complete over here to be followed by down leg or W X Y followed by a wave x, possibly as a zigzag, which will then be followed by Z. This was x in this scenario. So anyways, the main idea was that from a shorter time frame perspective, we were expecting a down leg now the clarification was not there that if this download will turn into a downfall that or bear fall, or will it just be a small downward movement which will be then followed by a new leg high. So and I believe it did go down from that level than we were discussing it. It was somewhere around 3329. Looking at the chart right now 3329. September so we must be let me check the exact date Posted on 20th. So yep, so from here on, we did go down. Right, the moment was not very huge, but we were not really expecting a we did not have an expectation either it will be a huge moment or small. Both things were possible, but the direction was only clear from a shorter timeframe. So now it seems to me like that we are still going on with the count of W X Y X Z and the possibility of this being if this is the y then this being the x still continuing is still there. Because it will look at this moment from the end of the wave y then we have A, B and C followed by another A B and C. So maybe a triangle or maybe some sort of complex formation. And once that is complete as an another x then we can have the next leg. That’s one possibility which is still suggesting that one more up like might be remaining before the expected fall. Right and that would mean That this market will remain sideways and then go up. Second possibility is that it will look at this last price action. And you can simply say that this is a diagonal structure over here, right. And you can say that this Y was complete, and this marked the end of the up leg. So in that case, you can say this is one, this is two, and that would mean that it should just fall from here for the three. So clearly, this third diagnostic cannot be ignored, it is a rather clear pattern. So it’s a, again, a bit of a wait and watch situation in the S&P, we will have to see which count is being followed. Because upleg remaining is still a strong possibility. And straight down is again still a real possibility here. I’ll just remove the clutter here, by the way, just to remind us Y complete here and this is by the way, a triple zig-zag formation if you are not aware, then it looks like this on the bigger picture chart. First leg up is W, second leg is down is X, next leg up is Y and all these legs are in three wave formation. So what happens is either the market completes at the Y or it gives one more leg up. So if it is completed already at the Y, then straight down movement can be seen from there. However, there is no clarity if it’s already complete, or it’s still continuing sideways. So I’ll say wait and watch here and keep this leading diagonal idea in mind because it is a clear formation. So based on that short term bias, we can even look for possible sell offs. But from a swing perspective, it can remain sideways in this range, because it could be as I mentioned previously be a triangle which is followed by a leg up for Z. So short term bias, selling ideas can take place here that is possible selling opportunities can appear. From a swing perspective by it is 5050 we are still unclear if it’s going to go up or down. Only thing is if in the next few sessions it remains 333 formation that is triangle kind of your complex kind of formation, then the possibility of Z wave remaining into the upper direction will become stronger. Otherwise, I will not comment and we’ll wait to see what happens. Let me know guys if there is anything unclear on this chart regarding this discussion on S&P in the comment section. Alright guys, so in that case, just to elaborate before we move on, first one was a triangle that is sideways, and then up. And second is straight down for wave 3. So that should just clarify whatever we discuss. So move on to nifty where we had a similar count last time and we discussed just to check back was around 31. So sort of the same count as the S&P W, X and Y formations. And we were still speculating if X is continuing, which will be followed by another up leg or will we see a fall from here? But in either case, we were expecting short term downward movement, because this was a leading diagonal. So A or 1 down, B or 2 up, C or 3 down and this was around the levels of 11 515 back then. So, it did fall actually after that 11 515 somewhere over here it is and after that we did have that A, B and C leg complete already. So the count worked precisely. The discussion was held around here. So here we discussed about the 1813 Yes 18. So here we made a discussion in the market was around 11 515. And the idea was short term bearishness is to remain could turn to long term bearishness but short term is It was a sell, and it did fall. So this one worked out again precisely, just like the s&p one. And let’s check the scenario. Now I believe we have the same count still going on. So yeah, nothing has changed on this one, still a w, x, y and then another x. So in this case, I believe the x looks complete to me over here, and that would mean the last leg up is in play. And even the last leg up as we know in a triple zig-zag the wave Z will have three waves in it like an A, B and C. So, we just have to track the last part and if this count is followed, which looks to be the case, then there should be another leg up, because this looks like an A complete over here. So, let’s have a look at the last part. From here shorter timeframe perspective, we seemingly have a one up two down three up four down. So, classic impulse complete and this will be your A of the Z which should be followed by a B of the Z so, again, the B could be going deeper like a flat or something or it could just have completed already like a possible triangle. One speculate which way it is, but I have a trigger already placed above this swing of 11 977. So, early evaluate the market if it takes out this high. And see if this is if there is any clarification about the position of wave B. In any case, if b is complete here or continuing, if this count is correct, we will wait for another leg up either it will be straight up or down and then up. So that’s for the current view on Nifty either it is a straight up or down and then up for the wave c of Z. And if this count is correct, then Once the Z is complete the major fall should come into play. And as for the targets we already know a projected from the end of B and 61.8 of A and 100% is what we will take. So I guess there isn’t much here to discuss on Nifty either other than the simple fact which I like to point out if the market is like really bearish and it wants to fall straight off then alternate count which we can take is that we can consider this as completion of Z, let me check if we can put w x y x over here and ABC. No, I believe it will at least make a smaller high, I was trying to see if the Z can be marked complete here but the moment is just not sufficient. It hasn’t even breached this. So technically, if the market is really bearish, then it can just breach it by a small margin, complete the Z and then fall. But that will be something to keep in mind when the market does go there. So basically what I’m trying to say is trying to catch the last leg up in case the markets overall direction is downside is not really a great idea. Because it can just turn without actually reaching the proper A equals C or C equals 61.8 of A targets so remain a bit aware that you need to be cautious on the long side a better idea would be just to trade it possibly intraday if you’re going for Long’s or wait from a swing perspective for this Z to complete and then go short. Right? Because that will be a much clearer case in mind. Other than that, I think it’s rather clear chart like there isn’t much I can put in at this point on this one. But in any case, let me know if you guys have any doubts here. Or just type in clear if that’s clear. Okay, guys, let’s have a look at Amazon. I have not really checked it in detail. But let’s just check it right now 345 ABC. So from what I can see over here right now is I this is a corrective leg down, followed by another corrective move up. So three downs and three up. So that means it’s continuing continuing inside corrective formation. And as for the last part, I think we can count it as sort of check, one and two and three, four and five does not look like a proper diagonal, we can count it as simply as an impulse as in one and two and 12345 for 3,up for 4 and then a 5. So as far as Amazon is concerned, I think we were speculating last time that it will follow the direction of S&P. Although I think it did not really followed it that well, let’s just check anyways. September, It did sort of go down. But that’s not the kind of moment you will call as following the count. So it did not really go precisely as we were expecting. And let me see if I had pointed out anything else. Around 3815. Yeah, so we were expecting some sort of down moment in it because a possible impulse may have completed and it looked like an one, two, and wave three down. So if there’s a wave 3 down, then definitely a little bit more downside should have been seen from this level of 2953. Which I don’t think was there, we are pretty much okay with the calling it in conjunction with S&P because in S&P there was this main hypo that it will form a triangle and then last leg up. So that is also applicable here. Because the first leg down is in three, second leg up is in three. So we can very well have this over here. And because Amazon is one of the leading stocks, one of the five stocks, so we do expect it to give the market direction, basically follow some of the pattern or part of the pattern S&Ps following. So I believe we are pretty much okay, going on with the H1 triangle followed by up and the second possibility that we may have completed this as a downline. However, in this particular case, we do not seem to have a leading diagonal over here. In the case of S&P, this wave was a leading diagonal. So that sort of gives sort of more strength to the hypo one. Although it could still fall, considering that the whole pattern itself can be a diagonal in the downward direction. And in a diagonal, if you guys are not familiar, we have 33333 formation. So in that case, this could be your ABC for one ABC for two. And so it can still fall. So both of the scenarios that we discuss on the S&P chart are precisely valid hair for the simpler fact that it sort of itself gives direction to the s&p. And as far as this last price action is concerned, I do believe that this can become more complex, it does look like a part of a bigger correction. So I will remain in favor of the corrective continuation or sideways movement in this market. In this box region, or zone, there’s a view on Amazon same as that on s&p, sideways and possibly bullish is our hypo one. Let’s check the Pharma stock which we have been following for a while. And it is still unclear. So anyways, I’ll still bring it up because we have been following it for a good few number of sessions. Auropharma and let’s first quickly check if there was any specific discussion we made about this stock. In the last webinar What do you want 35 Yes, so, I recall that it had gone down from this last high in three waves and my view was that practically it should fall more, but given the sentiment in the pharma sector, even a shorter pullback could be acceptable or could mark the completion of the moment. So, this was a bit of a wait and watch again. And the main view was that if it falls more than we will be more interested in buying it or if it gives a clear sign on the upside. So, let’s check if there was so, it has still continued falling. So, that means, the correction is still continuing the first three legs which I said were downward this and now we check the dated count which I have let me see. So, I have marked this first three waves down as a w. So, that means this becomes now a complex w x y correction or case of a double zigzag. And that would mean this is your wave x continuing as an AB&C possibly complete over here to be followed by next leg down It could be continuing, but the main point here is that we are expecting downward movement. The last scenario here that suggests your bullishness would be if the Y is already complete, but that does not look extremely likely given the fact that W is consuming this much in terms of price movement and why is only consuming this much though it is practically possible but to counter that view, that is if that is the case, I will only be serious about it once it crosses the high of 852. So once it crosses 852 then I will have to consider the possibility of correction already completed. As long as it does not do that I will go on with the view that it is still having one more downside our down leg remaining. I will wait for it to continue and fall below this level of 738 or 748. And then I’ll be interested in possible longs. So for auropharma our view is wait for long’s but not straight off possible pullback and then long’s because of a wxy continuation possibly continuing. So that’s our main view here. Still no trigger on this one. And last time also it was unclear. So wait and watch. Anyways guys, these are all the scripts that we generally discuss. If there is any doubt here please let me know. Okay, so Rajiv says clear, what about the other people here? Is there any doubt remaining, regarding this or any other scripts that we have discussed? Bank Nifty. Let me see if I have anything posted on it. So I have a rough outlook on bank nifty, but let’s just give it a go. Is that? Yeah Rajiv, that is we already discussed that in the last meeting we did. You were telling me how bank nifty jumps off during the day and then nifty later on follows it is exactly doing that. So actually, this chart is again, as clear as nifty and is sort of sort of more better if you dive into it, the nifty and the count as at the end is exactly the same 12345 impulse complete and then we are expecting correction to be followed by last leg up for Z. And in bank nifty, again, the count is I think this is what I’ve taken as W. This is what I’ve taken as X, Y and X so that is basically in line with our nifty count. And just before you leave, I just like to request that you share the uploaded video later on once I have posted it on YouTube, just share the website link. And secondly, if you or anyone of your friends is interested in learning, point them in the direction of my video course which is right there on my site www.50eyes.com/elliott-wave-course . And if you guys are interested yourselves in joining in for an intense learning session, one to one classes then you can make inquiries one second via the training program LT link under courses, which should bring you to this form and these are intense classes we do one to one discussions for three months. And the classes run quite long can run from two to three hours, and we do detailed discussions of markets and do strategizing and everything. And testimonials, everything already on website, the past people I’ve worked with are doing really well in the markets. And the last thing I have finally asked a few of my students to help in with this forecast accuracy for 2019 and 2020. So I already asked, Nick, and Thomas. And if anyone of you guys have the time, and would be interested in compiling it, then let me know it basically means you will be going through the video and then creating a spreadsheet like this. And then the spreadsheet will be posted here as the forecast accuracy. Basically, I realized that I won’t be having any time for checking this record. So I’m basically asking for help in this regard. So hopefully it will be up in the next two weeks.

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