In this session I will present long term forecast of S&P 500 an Index of the American Stock Market with the use of the powerfull Elliott Wave Principles.
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Chart used : Monthly, Candlestick.
Wave Count Started from March 2009.
Wave 1 : 666 to 1370
Wave 2 : 1370 to 1074 ( 38.2 % retracement of Wave 1 )
Wave 3 : 1074 to 2134 ( Less then 161.8% projection of Wave 1 )
Wave 4 : 2134 to 1810 ( Little lower then 23.6% retracement )
Note – Values can have a bit of variation.
As per this Wave count the 3rd Wave does not seem to be an extended wave in terms of ratios.
An alternate Elliott Wave Count considering Wave 1 at a lower position does exit in which case the 3rd Wave is extended but I will not consider that count here.
So as per this Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 we can conclude long term targets that is for the time frame of next 2 to 3 years (2017, 2018) as below :
Target 1 : 2370
Target 2 : 2544
Target 3 : 2717
Now these targets are given by using the measure from Ground Zero to the top of Wave 3 but if we measure the length of Wave 1 and project it from the end of Wave 4 then the immediate target comes out as 2510.
Hence based on the above two deductions it is clear that the level of 2500 is of significance and hence as per this Elliott Wave Analysis I will hold the view that within the next two to three years the American Stock Markets will have a bullish stance and should see the level of 2500.
I would also like to point out that this analysis will be considered incorrect if the price comes down below the level of 1370 before attaining the said above targets.
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